Tropical Weather Discussion
axnt20 knhc 180514

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1214 am EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...Special features...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward 
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along 
the coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
These gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0900 UTC 
tonight from 11n-12.5n between 74w-76w, with seas reaching 12 ft.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, 
under AWIPS/WMO headers fznt02 knhc/hsfat2, or at website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 09n13w and 
extends to 03n20w. The ITCZ continues from 03n20w to 00n28w to the
coast of South America near 02s44w. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03n-06n between 12w-20w, and from 01n-04s between 08w-16w.

Gulf of Mexico...

The tail end of a cold front extends from S Louisiana near 30n91w
to N of Tampico Mexico near 23n97w. Low stratus and fog are W of
front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder
of the basin has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high 
pressure over the western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf 

The cold front will extend from Tarpon Springs, Florida SW to the
central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. The front 
will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states through Tue evening 
before moving off the Texas coast again early Wed and stalling 
over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds N 
of 22n and W of the front tonight through Tue morning. Fresh to 
strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on Wed.

Caribbean Sea...

Please refer to the special features section above for more 
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central 
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated 
fresh to strong southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder 
of the basin. Other than some quick moving-trade wind showers, no
significant convection is noted across the basin as dry air in 
the mid-to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central 
Caribbean tonight through next weekend, reaching minimal gale 
force along the coast of Colombia at night each night. Strong 
winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters by Mon 
night and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high 
pressure builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to se winds are 
also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85w, including the 
Gulf of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over 
Atlantic waters E of the windward and Leeward Islands by mid week 
continuing through the weekend. 

Atlantic Ocean... 

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb 
surface high centered near 30n37w. This pattern maintains gentle 
to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to 
fresh winds over the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon evening, then
stall over the waters N of 27n Tue. The western part of the front
will lift N by Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast to 
move S-se until dissipating over the se waters on Thu. A ridge 
will build again by mid week and will prevail through the weekend.

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