Tropical Weather Discussion

abpw10 pgtw 180600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/180600z-190600zfeb2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/180151zfeb2019//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/180251zfeb2019//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning. Ref b is a tropical
cyclone formation alert.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 92w) previously located
near 3.4n 166.5e, is now located near 4.1n 164.4e, approximately 750
nm east-southeast of Chuuk. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
shows flaring convection surrounding several weak, low level
circulation centers (LLCC) embedded within an elongated area of low
pressure. A 172208z mhs metop-a 89ghz image shows a large area of
scattered, disorganized convection wrapping into a very broad
circulation center. 92w is currently in a favorable environment with
excellent dual outflow channels, low (5-10 kts) vertical wind shear,
and warm (28-29c) sea surface temperatures. Global models are in
good agreement that 92w will track westward before turning to the
northwest, as it further intensifies and subsequently reaches
warning criteria. However, models differ on the exact timing of the
intensification with GFS, the most aggressive, showing the system
reaching warning status within the next 18 hours. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains high. See ref b (wtpn21 pgtw 180300) for further
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 180000z, tropical cyclone 15p (oma) was located near
17.3s 164.0e, approximately 247 nm west of Port Vila, Vanuatu, and
had tracked southwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 knots gusting
to 65 knots. See ref a (wtps31 pgtw 180300) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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