Convective Outlook

U.S. Severe Weather Forecast

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acus01 kwns 230101 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 230100 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018 


Valid 230100z - 231200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from south 
central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the northeast Texas 
Panhandle... 


... 
Scattered severe storms will persist this evening across parts of 
the central/Southern Plains with damaging wind the primary threat. 


..central and Southern Plains region... 


Storms have evolved into a linear mesoscale convective system moving southeast through 
central KS, northwest OK and the Texas Panhandle. A few supercell 
structures also persist mainly along southern end of the line. The 
downstream atmosphere remains moderately unstable with 1500 j/kg 
MLCAPE, but the 00z radiosonde observation from Norman indicates a substantial capping 
inversion near 800 mb which combined with the loss of daytime 
heating suggest storms may weaken and become less organized later 
this evening. As the low-level jet strengthens later tonight, 
isentropic ascent north of the front located across North Texas may 
result in additional thunderstorm development. These storms could 
organize into clusters or line segments as they advance southeast 
and promote some risk for locally strong wind gusts and hail. 


..southeast states... 


Several clusters of storms persist from southern MS into al, Georgia and 
SC within a moderately unstable environment. This activity will pose 
some risk for locally strong to damaging wind gusts through about 
03z, but an overall weakening trend is expected as the surface layer 
cools. 


.Dial.. 06/23/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion

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acus11 kwns 230208 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 230207 
okz000-ksz000-txz000-230400- 


Mesoscale discussion 0831 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0907 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018 


Areas affected...southern and central Kansas...Texas and Oklahoma 
panhandles...western and central Oklahoma 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...200...201... 


Valid 230207z - 230400z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199, 200, 
201 continues. 


Summary...a wind damage threat will continue as a squall-line moves 
east-southeastward across parts of the southern and Central Plains. 
A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued shortly for areas to 
the east of weather watch 201. 


Discussion...the latest radar imagery shows a linear mesoscale convective system from 
southern Kansas extending southwestward into western Oklahoma and 
the eastern Texas Panhandle. The mesoscale convective system is being supported by a 
shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery over the Central 
Plains and southern High Plains. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a 40 
to 50 kt low-level jet will strengthen across the Southern Plains 
enabling the linear mesoscale convective system to be maintained late this evening into the 
overnight. The greatest wind damage potential should be over 
northern and central Oklahoma along the leading edge of the fastest 
moving line segments. However, there remains some potential that a 
severe threat could impact parts of southern Oklahoma where surface 
temperatures and the resulting instability was greater. Isolated 
large hail will also be possible with rotating cell elements along 
the squall-line. 


.Broyles/grams.. 06/23/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...tsa...ict...oun...ddc...Ama... 


Latitude...Lon 35509595 37219600 37709640 37919801 37129949 36390046 
35890119 35520134 35030102 34820038 34439851 34239653 
34879606 35509595 




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